For the Met Office to declare a ‘white Christmas’, a single snowflake has to be observed falling on the 24 hours of 25 December – they can often predict this five days beforehand
A weather expert has given his verdict on which UK cities are most likely to see a white Christmas this year. Weather forecaster Jim Dale explained that, as is usually the case, the likelihood of snowy weather increases as the season progresses. “It needs to be cold enough for long enough,” he said.
“As we get further into the season, everything is getting colder”. In general terms, the further north you go, the higher the chances of snowfall on Christmas Day. Mr Dale said: “The favourite big city tends to be Inverness, followed by Stirling, Perth, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Belfast, Carlisle, Newcastle and Lancaster.”
He added that, moving southwards, places such as York, Leeds, Manchester and Sheffield come into play. The expert also noted there’s a “great chance” of snow in areas further south – including Kent, London and East Anglia – if there’s a “more easterly” pattern of suitable conditions.
However, Mr Dale pointed out that the northern cities he mentioned remain “more or less the favourites, you might say”.
The Met Office suggests that western Scotland has the highest probability of enjoying a White Christmas, with odds of 26.7%.
In contrast, Wales is forecasted to have a 20% chance, while the north west, southern and south west England face a 13.3% possibility.
The Midlands has modest prospects of 6.7%.
For the Met Office to declare a ‘white Christmas’, a single snowflake has to be observed falling on the 24 hours of 25 December, by either an official Met Office observer or by a Met Office automated weather station. This is because it needs to be officially verified both for our climate records, and also to provide consistency and certainty.
They can accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand.
Experts have clarified that water turns into snow when the air temperature dips below 2C, debunking the common myth that it must be below 0C. The Met Office explains: “In fact, in this country, the heaviest snowfalls tend to occur when the air temperature is between 0C and 2C.”
They added: “The falling snow does begin to melt as soon as the temperature rises above freezing, but as the melting process begins, the air around the snowflake is cooled.”
The Met Office also defines the varying degrees of snowfall: “Snowfall can be defined as ‘slight,’ ‘moderate’ or ‘heavy’. When combined with strong winds, a snowfall can create blizzards and drifts.”
They conclude by stating: “If the temperature is warmer than 2C then the snowflake will melt and fall as sleet rather than snow, and if it’s warmer still, it will be rain.”
Technically, 2023 was the last white Christmas in the UK with 11% of stations recording snow falling, although none reported any snow lying on the ground. Before that, 2022 saw 9% of weather stations recording falling snow, but none with any snow settling. 2021 and 2020 were also technically white Christmases, both with 6% of weather stations recording snow falling, but in these years, less than 1% of stations reported any snow lying on the ground in 2021 and only 4% in 2020.
There was no record of snow falling at any station in the UK in 2018, or in 2019.
The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010. It was extremely unusual, as not only was there snow on the ground at 83% of stations (the highest amount ever recorded) but snow or sleet also fell at 19% of stations.
We also had a white Christmas in 2009, when 13% of stations recorded snow or sleet falling, and 57% reported snow lying on the ground.
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